PERCUSION Weather briefing

Published

September 25, 2024

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC

2024-09-26 15:00 UTC

2024-09-27 15:00 UTC

2024-09-28 12:00 UTC

2024-09-29 12:00 UTC

2024-09-30 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC 2024-09-26 15:00 UTC 2024-09-27 15:00 UTC 2024-09-28 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC 2024-09-25 15:00 UTC

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC

2024-09-26 15:00 UTC

2024-09-27 15:00 UTC

2024-09-28 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

  • Thursday’s flight (PI Jakob):
    • Southeastern and south circle likely on moist margins.
    • Northwestern and center circle inside moist margins.
    • Deep convection expected over northwestern flight area
  • Saturday’s flight (PI Julia):
    • Western circles likely outside moist margins. Eastern circles likely inside moist margins Middle circles likely to sample the doldrums.
    • No large areas of deep convection expected along the flight track.
    • Possible tropical cyclone development to the north of the track.

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC 2024-09-26 15:00 UTC 2024-09-27 15:00 UTC 2024-09-28 12:00 UTC

Probabilistic precipitation forecast

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC 2024-09-26 15:00 UTC 2024-09-27 15:00 UTC 2024-09-28 12:00 UTC

Horizontal sfc. wind conv. & Prob. precip. forecast

2024-09-29 12:00 UTC 2024-09-30 12:00 UTC 2024-09-29 12:00 UTC 2024-09-30 12:00 UTC