PERCUSION Weather briefing

Published

September 1, 2024

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-01 12:00 UTC

2024-09-02 12:00 UTC

2024-09-03 12:00 UTC

2024-09-04 12:00 UTC

2024-09-05 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-01 12:00 UTC 2024-09-02 12:00 UTC 2024-09-03 12:00 UTC 2024-09-04 12:00 UTC

Exceptional precipitation over the Sahara

Saharan dust forecast

2024-09-01 12:00 UTC

2024-09-02 12:00 UTC

2024-09-03 12:00 UTC

2024-09-04 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Sal

Summary

  • Tuesday’s flight:
    • Northern circle is not at the edge: Neither at moist margin nor at convection margin
    • Northern circle might sample a developing tropical strom though
    • Wide ITCZ with plenty of deep convection
  • Transfer flight:
    • East and south of potentially developing tropical storm
    • Southern moist margin, which should be sampled, is rather certain
  • Exceptional rain event in the Sahara expected