PERCUSION Weather briefing

Published

September 18, 2024

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-18 15:00 UTC

2024-09-19 15:00 UTC

2024-09-20 15:00 UTC

2024-09-21 12:00 UTC

2024-09-22 12:00 UTC

2024-09-23 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-18 15:00 UTC 2024-09-19 15:00 UTC 2024-09-20 15:00 UTC 2024-09-21 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-18 15:00 UTC 2024-09-18 15:00 UTC

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-18 15:00 UTC

2024-09-19 15:00 UTC

2024-09-20 15:00 UTC

2024-09-21 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

  • For tomorrow’s flight:
    • northern moist margin obscured by moist outflow into tropical disturbance
    • potential for deep convection in northern flight area east of EC track
  • For next flight:
    • northern moist margin still obscured by interaction with tropical disturbance
    • no deep precipitating convection expected but good chance of sampling doldrums

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence

2024-09-18 15:00 UTC 2024-09-19 15:00 UTC 2024-09-20 15:00 UTC 2024-09-21 12:00 UTC