PERCUSION Weather briefing

Published

September 21, 2024

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-21 15:00 UTC

2024-09-22 15:00 UTC

2024-09-23 15:00 UTC

2024-09-24 12:00 UTC

2024-09-25 12:00 UTC

2024-09-26 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

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Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

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Total aerosol optical depth

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2024-09-22 15:00 UTC

2024-09-23 15:00 UTC

2024-09-24 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

  • Today’s flight (PI Raphaela):
    • No significant deep convection expected
  • Monday’s flight (PI Theresa):
    • Certainly within the ITCZ moist margins, but outside the doldrums
    • Strong deep convection expected
  • Tuesday’s flight (PI Anna):
    • Same conditions as during Theresa’s flight
    • Some chance to sample the same convective system as Theresa’s flight

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence

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Probabilistic precipitation forecast

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Horizontal sfc. wind conv. & Prob. precip. forecast

2024-09-25 12:00 UTC 2024-09-26 12:00 UTC 2024-09-25 12:00 UTC 2024-09-26 12:00 UTC