PERCUSION Weather briefing

Published

September 23, 2024

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-23 15:00 UTC

2024-09-24 15:00 UTC

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC

2024-09-26 12:00 UTC

2024-09-27 12:00 UTC

2024-09-28 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-23 15:00 UTC 2024-09-24 15:00 UTC 2024-09-25 15:00 UTC 2024-09-26 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-23 15:00 UTC 2024-09-23 15:00 UTC

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-23 15:00 UTC

2024-09-24 15:00 UTC

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC

2024-09-26 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

  • Today’s flight:
    • Inside the moist margins along a pronounced line of deep convection
    • Chance to sample localized doldrums
  • Tomorrow’s flight:
    • Certainly inside the moist margins
    • Possibility of sampling organized line-like convection
  • Later throughout the weak: Growing uncertainty due to tropical depression/storm AL96

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence

2024-09-23 15:00 UTC 2024-09-24 15:00 UTC 2024-09-25 15:00 UTC 2024-09-26 12:00 UTC

Probabilistic precipitation forecast

2024-09-23 15:00 UTC 2024-09-24 15:00 UTC 2024-09-25 15:00 UTC 2024-09-26 12:00 UTC

Horizontal sfc. wind conv. & Prob. precip. forecast

2024-09-27 12:00 UTC 2024-09-28 12:00 UTC 2024-09-27 12:00 UTC 2024-09-28 12:00 UTC