PERCUSION Weather briefing

Published

September 24, 2024

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-24 15:00 UTC

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC

2024-09-26 15:00 UTC

2024-09-27 12:00 UTC

2024-09-28 12:00 UTC

2024-09-29 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-24 15:00 UTC 2024-09-25 15:00 UTC 2024-09-26 15:00 UTC 2024-09-27 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-24 15:00 UTC 2024-09-24 15:00 UTC

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-24 15:00 UTC

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC

2024-09-26 15:00 UTC

2024-09-27 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

  • Today’s flight (PI Anna):
    • Deep convection and associated doldrums expected in Eastern circle
    • Lower chance of deep convection on Earthcare track
  • Thursday’s flight (PI Jakob):
    • Circles appear to be well placed at the moist margins
    • Deep convection expected in northwestern flight area
  • Saturday’s flight (PI Julia):
    • No ICWV>48mm and no deep convection around Earthcare track
    • Chance to sample pronounced “dry-air” doldrums

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence

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Probabilistic precipitation forecast

2024-09-24 15:00 UTC 2024-09-25 15:00 UTC 2024-09-26 15:00 UTC 2024-09-27 12:00 UTC

Horizontal sfc. wind conv. & Prob. precip. forecast

2024-09-28 12:00 UTC 2024-09-29 12:00 UTC 2024-09-28 12:00 UTC 2024-09-29 12:00 UTC