PERCUSION Weather briefing

2024-09-25

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC

2024-09-26 15:00 UTC

2024-09-27 15:00 UTC

2024-09-28 12:00 UTC

2024-09-29 12:00 UTC

2024-09-30 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC

2024-09-26 15:00 UTC

2024-09-27 15:00 UTC

2024-09-28 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

• Thursday’s flight (PI Jakob):
  • Southeastern and south circle likely on moist margins.
  • Northwestern and center circle inside moist margins.
  • Deep convection expected over northwestern flight area
• Saturday’s flight (PI Julia):
  • Western circles likely outside moist margins. Eastern circles likely inside moist margins Middle circles likely to sample the doldrums.
  • No large areas of deep convection expected along the flight track.
  • Possible tropical cyclone development to the north of the track.

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence

Probabilistic precipitation forecast

Horizontal sfc. wind conv. & Prob. precip. forecast