PERCUSION Weather briefing

Published

September 16, 2024

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-16 15:00 UTC

2024-09-17 15:00 UTC

2024-09-18 15:00 UTC

2024-09-19 12:00 UTC

2024-09-20 12:00 UTC

2024-09-21 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-16 15:00 UTC 2024-09-17 15:00 UTC 2024-09-18 15:00 UTC 2024-09-19 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-16 15:00 UTC 2024-09-16 15:00 UTC

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-16 15:00 UTC

2024-09-17 15:00 UTC

2024-09-18 15:00 UTC

2024-09-19 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

  • Today’s flight:
    • southern circle south west of the ITZC moist margin.
    • middle and norther circles inside the ITZC moist margins.
    • chance to sample the doldrums in inbound and outbound paths.
    • might meet some convection during the flight, specially over the middle and norther circles.
  • Thursday’s flight:
    • southern ITCZ moist margin similar on latest operational runs but still uncertain on the ensemble.
    • likely to encounter convection associated with tropical depression Gordon.

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence

2024-09-16 15:00 UTC 2024-09-17 15:00 UTC 2024-09-18 15:00 UTC 2024-09-19 12:00 UTC