PERCUSION Weather briefing

Published

September 9, 2024

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-09 12:00 UTC

2024-09-10 12:00 UTC

2024-09-11 12:00 UTC

2024-09-12 12:00 UTC

2024-09-13 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-09 12:00 UTC 2024-09-10 12:00 UTC 2024-09-11 12:00 UTC 2024-09-12 12:00 UTC

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-09 12:00 UTC

2024-09-10 12:00 UTC

2024-09-11 12:00 UTC

2024-09-12 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

  • Today’s flight:
    • ITCZ widens east of the flight path. Northern circle placed north and west of edges with strong ICWV gradients.
    • Middle circle may sample the doldrums.
    • Middle and perhaps northern circles prone to strong convective activity.
  • Next flight:
    • Very uncertain forecast of ITCZ moist margins
    • Good chance of sampling the doldrums.
    • Likely to have a low pressure system north of the flight tracks. Currently with 40% to 60% chances of development.