PERCUSION Weather briefing

Published

September 15, 2024

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-15 15:00 UTC

2024-09-16 15:00 UTC

2024-09-17 15:00 UTC

2024-09-18 12:00 UTC

2024-09-19 12:00 UTC

2024-09-20 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-15 15:00 UTC 2024-09-16 15:00 UTC 2024-09-17 15:00 UTC 2024-09-18 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

2024-09-15 15:00 UTC 2024-09-15 15:00 UTC

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-15 15:00 UTC

2024-09-16 15:00 UTC

2024-09-17 15:00 UTC

2024-09-18 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

  • For tomorrows’s flight:
    • southern circle a bit south of ITCZ edge (48mm margin)
    • northern ITCZ edge still uncertain due to tropical storm Gordon
    • rather fair conditions with moderate convection expected
  • For next flight:
    • southern ITCZ edge likely quite close to Barbados
    • northern ITCZ edge still very uncertain due to influence of Gordon
    • deep, precipitating convection rather likely in northern flight area

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence

2024-09-15 15:00 UTC 2024-09-16 15:00 UTC 2024-09-17 15:00 UTC 2024-09-18 12:00 UTC