PERCUSION Weather briefing

2024-09-24

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-24 15:00 UTC

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC

2024-09-26 15:00 UTC

2024-09-27 12:00 UTC

2024-09-28 12:00 UTC

2024-09-29 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-24 15:00 UTC

2024-09-25 15:00 UTC

2024-09-26 15:00 UTC

2024-09-27 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

• Today’s flight (PI Anna):
  • Deep convection and associated doldrums expected in Eastern circle
  • Lower chance of deep convection on Earthcare track
• Thursday’s flight (PI Jakob):
  • Circles appear to be well placed at the moist margins
  • Deep convection expected in northwestern flight area
• Saturday’s flight (PI Julia):
  • No ICWV>48mm and no deep convection around Earthcare track
  • Chance to sample pronounced “dry-air” doldrums

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence

Probabilistic precipitation forecast

Horizontal sfc. wind conv. & Prob. precip. forecast