PERCUSION Weather briefing

2024-09-21

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-21 15:00 UTC

2024-09-22 15:00 UTC

2024-09-23 15:00 UTC

2024-09-24 12:00 UTC

2024-09-25 12:00 UTC

2024-09-26 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-21 15:00 UTC

2024-09-22 15:00 UTC

2024-09-23 15:00 UTC

2024-09-24 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

• Today’s flight (PI Raphaela):
  • No significant deep convection expected
• Monday’s flight (PI Theresa):
  • Certainly within the ITCZ moist margins, but outside the doldrums
  • Strong deep convection expected
• Tuesday’s flight (PI Anna):
  • Same conditions as during Theresa’s flight
  • Some chance to sample the same convective system as Theresa’s flight

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence

Probabilistic precipitation forecast

Horizontal sfc. wind conv. & Prob. precip. forecast