PERCUSION Weather briefing

2024-09-16

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-16 15:00 UTC

2024-09-17 15:00 UTC

2024-09-18 15:00 UTC

2024-09-19 12:00 UTC

2024-09-20 12:00 UTC

2024-09-21 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-16 15:00 UTC

2024-09-17 15:00 UTC

2024-09-18 15:00 UTC

2024-09-19 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

• Today’s flight:
  • southern circle south west of the ITZC moist margin.
  • middle and norther circles inside the ITZC moist margins.
  • chance to sample the doldrums in inbound and outbound paths.
  • might meet some convection during the flight, specially over the middle and norther circles.
• Thursday’s flight:
  • southern ITCZ moist margin similar on latest operational runs but still uncertain on the ensemble.
  • likely to encounter convection associated with tropical depression Gordon.

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence