PERCUSION Weather briefing

2024-09-15

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-15 15:00 UTC

2024-09-16 15:00 UTC

2024-09-17 15:00 UTC

2024-09-18 12:00 UTC

2024-09-19 12:00 UTC

2024-09-20 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-15 15:00 UTC

2024-09-16 15:00 UTC

2024-09-17 15:00 UTC

2024-09-18 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

• For tomorrows’s flight:
  • southern circle a bit south of ITCZ edge (48mm margin)
  • northern ITCZ edge still uncertain due to tropical storm Gordon
  • rather fair conditions with moderate convection expected
• For next flight:
  • southern ITCZ edge likely quite close to Barbados
  • northern ITCZ edge still very uncertain due to influence of Gordon
  • deep, precipitating convection rather likely in northern flight area

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence