PERCUSION Weather briefing

2024-09-09

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-09 12:00 UTC

2024-09-10 12:00 UTC

2024-09-11 12:00 UTC

2024-09-12 12:00 UTC

2024-09-13 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-09 12:00 UTC

2024-09-10 12:00 UTC

2024-09-11 12:00 UTC

2024-09-12 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

• Today’s flight:
  • ITCZ widens east of the flight path. Northern circle placed north and west of edges with strong ICWV gradients.
  • Middle circle may sample the doldrums.
  • Middle and perhaps northern circles prone to strong convective activity.
• Next flight:
  • Very uncertain forecast of ITCZ moist margins
  • Good chance of sampling the doldrums.
  • Likely to have a low pressure system north of the flight tracks. Currently with 40% to 60% chances of development.