PERCUSION Weather briefing

2024-09-26

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-26 15:00 UTC

2024-09-27 15:00 UTC

2024-09-28 15:00 UTC

2024-09-29 12:00 UTC

2024-09-30 12:00 UTC

2024-10-01 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-26 15:00 UTC

2024-09-27 15:00 UTC

2024-09-28 15:00 UTC

2024-09-29 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

• Todays’s flight:
  • Circles likely to sample across the moist margins. East-most circle will be outside the moist margin.
  • Deep convection expected mostly west of the flight path close to Barbados. West-most circles might encounter deep convection.
• Saturday’s flight:
  • Eastern circles likely inside moist margins. Western circles migth be outside moist margins.
  • All circles likely to sample the doldrums.
  • No large areas of deep convection expected along the flight track.
  • Possible tropical cyclone development to the north of the track.

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence

Probabilistic precipitation forecast

Horizontal sfc. wind conv. & Prob. precip. forecast