PERCUSION Weather briefing

2024-09-13

Current synoptic situation

NHC surface analysis

NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical Hovmöller

Latest satellite images

GOES yesterday’s image

GOES latest image

GOES WEST Latest Infrared Image

ECMWF Forecasts

2024-09-13 15:00 UTC

2024-09-14 15:00 UTC

2024-09-15 15:00 UTC

2024-09-16 12:00 UTC

2024-09-17 12:00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts of moist margins

Total aerosol optical depth

2024-09-13 15:00 UTC

2024-09-14 15:00 UTC

2024-09-15 15:00 UTC

2024-09-16 12:00 UTC

Local forecast for Barbados

Summary

• Tomorrows’s flight:
  • High likelihood to sample a well-defined ITCZ.
  • Likely to sample the doldrums on the norther circle.
  • Northern circle likely to be within the ITCZ. Yet, ITCZ moist margin is still uncertain.
• Monday’s flight:
  • Still high uncertainty of moist margins due to TD Seven.
  • Souther moist margin better defined in latest forecasts.

Supporting figures

Horizontal surface wind convergence